Can Xue and Anne Carson lead 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature odds
Chinese experimental writer Can Xue and Canadian poet Anne Carson are the front-runners for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, according to the latest betting odds. The list of contenders highlights a global and experimental literary field.
Can Xue and Anne Carson lead the betting field for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature with odds of 5.00 and 7.00 respectively. The 73-year-old Chinese experimental writer and the 76-year-old Canadian poet are the top favourites.
Can Xue is China's leading experimental writer. Anne Carson is known for a hybrid style that mixes poetry and prose and for the 1998 verse novel Autobiography of Red. Both writers have 10/1 odds according to Ladbrokes.
Global range of contenders highlights shifting literary landscape
The 2026 list features around 40 authors from across the globe. Asian literature is particularly well represented, with Can Xue and Indian author Amitav Ghosh among the strongest contenders. Ghosh has odds of 9.00.
Longer-odds candidates include a wide array of internationally celebrated writers. The field includes past Booker and Pulitzer winners, prominent novelists, and perennial favourites.
| Author | Notable Recognition |
|---|---|
| Margaret Atwood | Winner of the Booker and Giller prizes, author of The Handmaid’s Tale |
| Cristina Rivera Garza | Winner of the 2024 Pulitzer Prize for memoir Liliana’s Invincible Summer |
| Enrique Vila-Matas | Longlisted for the 2020 International Booker for Mac and His Problem |
| Jamaica Kincaid | Antiguan-American writer known for Annie John and A Small Place |
| Karl Ove Knausgård | Norwegian author |
| Alexis Wright | Australian writer |
| Colm Tóibín | Irish novelist |
| César Aira | Argentine author |
| Deborah Levy | British writer |
| Don DeLillo | American novelist |
| Emmanuel Carrère | French writer |
| Leila Aboulela | Sudanese-born author |
| Michael Ondaatje | Sri Lankan-Canadian writer |
| Mircea Cărtărescu | Romanian novelist |
| Salman Rushdie | British-Indian novelist |
Betting trends reveal patterns in Nobel selections
In recent years, Nobel winners have often been found among the leading candidates in betting markets. Last year's winner, László Krasznahorkai, had the second-lowest odds before the announcement. Jon Fosse was ranked second among the favourites before receiving the prize. Annie Ernaux was the third favourite in her winning year, and Louise Glück was among the leading contenders before her 2020 win.
Surprises do happen. Bob Dylan and Han Kang were not among the top favourites when they won. Abdulrazak Gurnah was not even included in the betting market when he won, described as perhaps the biggest surprise in recent years.
Industry perspective on literary betting and global interest
Betsson Group, a Swedish-founded global betting company, has offered odds on the Nobel Prize in Literature for more than a decade. The company employs around 3,000 people across several continents. Robin Olenius, the Head of PR at Betsson Group, notes a recurring pattern.
"A recurring pattern is that authors who attract strong support from both literary experts and bettors often remain leading contenders year after year," Olenius said. "Can Xue, Anne Carson and Gerald Murnane all fit that pattern."
Olenius also observed a broadening of international engagement. As Betsson has become increasingly international, we are seeing betting activity and literary interest from a broader range of markets around the world compared with earlier years.
The Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced on Thursday, 8 October, 2026 by the Swedish Academy.
